Posts by Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin: don't start calling people troll !!”

Simon,

Please share that piece of advice with everyone else around here too. I’m just as tired of the phrase as everyone else is. But you seem a little selective about who is licensed around here to apply the term. When participants tag me with that label I’ve yet to see them admonished as you do me above. I recommend you start with yourself, and zed is dead immediately afterward.

Steve2,

My work presenting an extrapolation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine is neither designed nor intended for anyone’s academic acceptance. It never has been. That whole objection coming from you and others is no more than one gigantic strawman.

My work presenting an extrapolation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine is to offer AN answer to a decades old question; not THE answer to a decades old question.

My work is not to have predicted the number of deaths but, rather, a number based on known data and stated assumptions. This is how extrapolations are made, whether academic or casual. My extrapolation is informal. To then treat it as formal is beside the point, not to mention absurd!

My work is to share a number to help people grasp a scope they may not have thought possible but, as it turns out, is possible.

How do we know it’s possible? Because of the number of documented deaths in the captured population in 2 regions of New Zealand among JWs refusing blood and defaulting to conservative assumptions for sake of calculating what this means against the world population of JWs.

This is no academic exercise for me. My effort is to help people understand what is happening in the community of JWs. The Watchtower is not giving this information out, and I’m not going to sit on it. I’m telling.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“In NZ, a 15 y.o. is BELOW the age required for giving legal consent, and they, nor their parents has the legal right to refuse blood, IF it's a matter of life or death (since the Courts would intervene). On the other hand, a 16 y.o. in NZ CAN refuse blood on their own, since they've reached the age of majority (adulthood), EVEN IF it's a life or death decision. THAT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE you've simply ignored.”

Adamah,

Alas! What you write above is pretty much exactly what I said above.

Nuff said.

“It seemingly is unknown how many SIXTEEN (16) to EIGHTEEN (18) year olds may have been included in Beliaev's study, which INFLATES the results, making them UNSUITABLE for extrapolation if the issue cannot be compensated for in a statistically-valid manner.”

How many 16-18 year olds were included in the study is no more or less relevant than how many 26-28 year olds were in the study.

“Marvin, please don't quote my past attempt to aid you,…”

No problem there!

You’re a troll.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Fight as you will Marvin the majority of people who have been JWS for a short time or even a long time would not agree with that amount. (250,000)”

NEWS FLASH!!!

My extrapolation does not assert that 250,000 died refusing blood.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

15-year-olds?

When I read responses such as those from participant Adamah on this thread it amazes me the wrongheadedness folks can let themselves be entrapped.

Adamah thinks it important to my conclusions that 15-year olds were included in the Beliaev study because 15-year olds are, under New Zealand law, unable to refuse treatment when refusal may threaten their life or health. This complaint from Adamah is nonsense. Here’s why:

- For 15-year olds refusing blood to be a factor to increasing mortality in the Beliaev study means a 15-year-old would have had to die the result of refusing blood.

According to Adamah, that can’t be the case, yet that is the only way including a 15-year-old in the study could inflate mortality!

What Adamah apparently fails to consider is that otherwise healthy 15-year-olds can and do recover from an Hb level at 8 dL without red cell transfusion and Hb level at or below 8 dL was the threshold for inclusion in Beliaev’s study.

There is documented instances of minors in New Zealand and elsewhere suffering Hb level at or lower than 8 dL with clinicians willing to honor requests of no red cell transfusion content to instead closely monitor for symptoms of inadequate tissue oxygenation. In these instances red cells were transfused against a patients/parents wish when symptoms became evident. Otherwise the patient was not given red cell transfusion with no adverse outcome the result.

If we categorically assume that in New Zealand 15-year olds are unable to die the result of refusing blood then we are left with no alternative than no death of a 15-year-old in Beliaev’s study was the result of a 15-year-old refusing blood. Hence nothing in my extrapolation is inflated the result of 15-year-olds being in Beliaev’s study.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Like HELL it doesn't!

“Age very MUCH DOES effect whether patient(s) who participated in Believ's study had the legal right to make the decision to die.”

Adamah,

No one can be as stupid as you are pretending to be.

READ MY LIPS…

I DID NOT SAY age does not change whether a patients who participate in Beliaev’s study had the legal right to make the decision to die.

I DID SAY age does not change the fact that in each case a JW patient with “severe anemia” objected to red cell transfusion and either lived or died.

You don’t see the difference. Either that or you want to keep asserting your strawman.

I know why my earlier choice to ignore you. I should have listened to myself then and not wasted more time responding to you.

You’re a troll.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, please accept that I simply do not agree that any extrapolation should ever have been done whether conservative or not for reasons that have been well-aired throughout this thread.”

Steve2,

I accept that you disagree with my conclusions.

I don’t see any viable objections from you or anyone else in this discussion that are unaccounted for or that undermine the conclusion I’ve offered. Specifically, you fail to offer any evidence that I’ve assumed things that would in any way whatsoever inflate a value that we all know exists.

What I have witnessed in this discussion is a lot of whining by folks who have yet to address the core feature of my extrapolation.

“I have considered your answers to my objections and I am struck by the naivete of the continued arguments that you have used to justify the extrapolation in the first place which led to my use of the adjective "stubborn".”

I’ve considered what you’ve had to say, too. And, not that it matters, but I’ve bothered myself to respond exhaustively to your complaints. At this point I’m left wondering if you’re attempt is no more than trying to waste my time. You’ve ignored substance at every turn. So be it. Readers will make of this discussion what they will, which is as it should be.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“That a researcher can navigate the mountainous barriers to sound research findings and make it all seem so plausible and be so untroubeld by it speaks to the caliber of the researcher.”

Steve2

Barriers to my extrapolation occur in one fashion: factors that require either 1) hard data or 2) assumption.

Where I had hard data I used hard data.

Where I did not have hard data I assumed as conservatively as possible.

If that should trouble me then I’ll eat your hat.

“There comes a time when critics need to call it quits and hope and trust readers can make up their own minds about whether the research and its conclusions are sound. It is an example of, not so much the type of scholastic dishonesty we find in Watchtower publications but more likely stubborn scholastic naivete in which the researcher has failed to grasp the fundamentals of sound research design, methodology and conclusions.”

Stubborn?

I’ve asked and asked you and other whiners to point out where I’ve made an assumption that fails to favor a conservative extrapolation. You complain and complain. But when it gets right down to it that’s all you’re doing.

There comes a time when researchers need to call it quits and hope and trust that readers can and will decide for themselves whether a piece of research and its conclusions are sound. When critics fail to answer relevant questions then those critics have become whiners.

Readers will decided as they will, which is as it should be.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“So to extrapolate from ANY study that is conducted in NZ is not "conservative" if you're not accounting for the inflating effect of the relatively lower age of consent New Zealanders "enjoy" (I put the word in brackets, as to have the right to die for Jehovah at the age 17 is NOT much of a right to "enjoy") vs the rest of the World.”

Adamah,

I fail to see your point. In each case a JW patient with “severe anemia” objected to red cell transfusion and either lived or died.

Age does not change that.

If age does not change that then the body count at work in my extrapolation remains solid.

“Furthermore, you need to subtract from the 7.4 mil Worldwide JW figure those who are actually minors (and hence would be protected by the varying laws that exist in their different countries); otherwise you don't KNOW how many minors are included in that total figure, and that's ALSO a source of inflated numbers; not accounting for those who'd be saved by Court Order.

“Did you consider and/or do that? If not, then your figure is not as "conservative" as you might tell yourself.”

I don’t think you understand the math at work in my extrapolation.

Were I to do as you say it would only increase the mortality rate suffered by JWs for refusing blood. The fact that my extrapolation does not do as you suggest makes my extrapolation a firm understatement.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

Adamah,

When I say it does not matter I mean it does not matter to my extrapolation.

I don’t ignore anything you speak of above. It’s just that none of it makes a difference to my extrapolation because my extrapolation assumes no deaths other than those reported in the Beliaev study.

In essence the Beliaev study provides a crude body count of deaths due to refusing blood. By “crude”, I mean it does not include anyone who did, may have or likely died due to any circumstance or scenario other than the incidents of the Beliaev study. This body count only includes the known mortalities discovered in Beliaev’s study.

It is this hard count that is used against the population of New Zealand JWs that creates the ratio of deaths per capita. We can talk about alternate/unusual or unrecorded incidents/circumstances all we want and this hard count based on deaths discovered in the Beliaev study does not change.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“and what about people who need total BTs which has nothing to do with their 8dL count, such as I stated previously?

“What about the many circumstances of where BTs were needed but there wasn't the proper blood to administer.

“Does New Zealand have the exact number of JWs Per Capita as every other country in the world?”

Finkelstein,

Any attempt to include JW deaths due to refusing “total BTs” would only increase the number of JWs dead due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

Circumstances where blood transfusion is unavailable would equally affect mortality regardless of JW or non-JW.

The per capita of JWs to general population from one nation to the next is irrelevant to the study at issue. Why you think it relevant is something only you know.

Marvin Shilmer